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Semiconductor export controls: the running tracker

A verified record of government trade restrictions, license approvals, and cross border semiconductor policy actions.

Octans ResearchPublished Updated

Snapshot

This tracker logs regulatory interventions, licensing decisions, and international trade policies governing the global semiconductor supply chain. Capital outlays and cross border equipment flows face shifting state mandates, illustrated by China procuring $38B in chipmaking tools despite trade curbs.

Coverage
Independent Research
Prepared by
Octans Research
As of

What We Know

Octans View

Export control actions have expanded beyond advanced silicon to encompass design models, capital equipment, and cross border equity holdings. Market reactions to domestic semiconductor developments remain volatile, with one Chinese chip maker surging 466% on its first trading day.

Bear Case · Room for Disagreement

This dataset omits non public enforcement proceedings, inter agency waivers, and unannounced bilateral trade reviews, despite tracking a peak individual commitment of $250B. The list spans 30 actions across 16 publishers per the Octans Research market feed, alongside baseline regulatory items at $0M per the Octans Research market feed.

Sources

  1. [1]economictimes.indiatimes.com — Reported April 4, 2026: US tightens chip export controls, curb China's tech rise.
  2. [2]rte.ie — Reported October 9, 2025: China tightens rare earth export controls. China has tightened its rare earth export controls, expanding restrictions on processing technology and spelling out its intention to limit exports to overseas defence and semiconductor users.
  3. [3]economictimes.indiatimes.com — Reported July 21, 2026: aI: China considers tighter export controls on AI models and chips.
  4. [4]financefeeds.com — Reported July 1, 2026: U.S. Lifts Export Controls on Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI Models. The U.S.
  5. [5]thestockmarketwatch.com — Reported May 31, 2026: US Tightens AI Chip Export Controls as Middle East Tensions Escalate Amid US-Iran Negotiations.
  6. [6]yahoo.com — Reported November 4, 2025: European Union welcomes suspension of China's rare earth controls.
  7. [7]finance.yahoo.com — Reported October 9, 2025: China Dodges US Export Controls, Buys $38 Billion In Chipmaking Equipment, Congress Report Says. China bought about $38 billion worth of sophisticated chimaking equipment from the U.S.
  8. [8]finance.yahoo.com — Reported March 4, 2026: India seeks Dutch knowhow in semiconductor push. A trade delegation from India visited the Dutch semiconductor hub of Eindhoven on Wednesday to discuss ‌investment opportunities as New Delhi accelerates its efforts to build a domestic ‌chip industry.
  9. [9]cnbc.com — Reported April 7, 2026: ASML shares fall after proposed U.S. export curbs target an already fragile China market. Proposed U.S. restrictions would target ASML's deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machine, which Chinese companies have so far been able to access.
  10. [10]yahoo.com — Reported December 15, 2025: Huawei's Kirin 9030 processor shows China's chip progress despite US export curbs: report.
  11. [11]piie.com — Reported July 2, 2026: Fable of the Mythos saga: Ad hoc US AI model controls could help China. Proliferating export controls, import bans, and shortages of key components since COVID-19 have made supply chain resilience a top strategic concern for firms and governments.
  12. [12]seekingalpha.com — Reported March 5, 2026: Nvidia shifts production focus to Vera Rubin amid China-bound H200 setback - report. Nvidia halts H200 AI chip production for China amid US-China export controls, reallocating TSMC capacity to Vera Rubin.
  13. [13]wallstreetpit.com — export restrictions to China, as outlined in a Sept. 29 Commerce Department rule targeting subsidiaries with at least 50% ownership by sanctioned entities.
  14. [14]livemint.com — Reported October 18, 2025: Chip Firm Arrow Says Its Units To Be Removed from US Blacklist. Arrow Electronics Inc.
  15. [15]yahoo.com — The Dutch state took control of Nexperia on September 30 to ensure its technology and operations remain on European soil - just as Washington expanded its
  16. [16]economictimes.indiatimes.com — Reported July 15, 2026: Nvidia H200 chips: US official says Nvidia has begun shipping powerful H200 AI chips to China. In May, ⁠Reuters reported ⁠the Commerce Department had cleared around 10 Chinese firms to buy the H200, but no deliveries had been made at the time.
  17. [17]economictimes.indiatimes.com — Reported April 28, 2026: US stocks today: US orders multiple chip equipment companies to halt some shipments to China's No. 2 chipmaker Hua Hong. The U.S.
  18. [18]finance.yahoo.com — Reported November 25, 2025: Good News for Nvidia Investors. Media reports suggest the White House is urging lawmakers to kill a pending bill in Congress that would increase export curbs on U.S.-made semiconductors.
  19. [19]finance.yahoo.com — On December 9, 2025, The Fly reported that Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers upgraded his evaluation of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).
  20. [20]finance.yahoo.com — Reported October 9, 2025: Nvidia Stock Could Get Another Boost After U.S. Approves UAE AI Chip Deal. Washington reportedly approved an export license for Nvidia to ship 500,000 AI chips a year.
  21. [21]upi.com — Reported November 3, 2025: Microsoft to ship Nvidia chips to United Arab Emirates; invest $15.2 billion. Microsoft announced Monday that it has export licenses to ship Nvidia chips to the United Arab Emirates to help boost its artificial intelligence goals.
  22. [22]cnbc.com — Reported September 17, 2025: Speaker Johnson says China is straining U.S. relations with Nvidia chip ban. The Cyberspace Administration of China ordered companies to halt purchases of Nvidia's RTX Pro 6000D, a chip that was made for the country.
  23. [23]thestockmarketwatch.com — Reported February 24, 2026: Tech & AI Legal Update: Nvidia H200 China Sales Stalled; xAI Trade Secrets Suit Dismissed. A senior U.S. Commerce Department official confirmed on Tuesday that no Nvidia (NVDA) H200 chips have been sold to China to date.
  24. [24]nbcnews.com — Reported March 20, 2026: Three men charged with illegally smuggling advanced AI chips into China.
  25. [25]finance.yahoo.com — On December 15, Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an “Outperform” rating on the stock with a $275.00 price target.
  26. [26]economictimes.indiatimes.com — Reported April 16, 2026: US lawmakers scale back bill targeting Chinese chipmaking. A US bill to limit China's access to advanced chipmaking equipment has been modified. The legislation still aims to restrict ASML's deep ultraviolet lithography machines.
  27. [27]realclearmarkets.com — Reported August 17, 2026: Beware, Broad Semiconductor Tariffs Would Make Everything More Expensive.
  28. [28]finance.yahoo.com — Reported January 18, 2026: Trump Administration Offers Tariff Relief In Exchange For $250 Billion Taiwan Chip Investment — TSMC Weighs Arizona Expansion, Says Howard Lutnick.
  29. [29]bloombergquint.com — Reported September 5, 2025: Trump Hints At 200-300% Tariff On Semiconductor Imports: 'Fairly Substantial Chips Coming Shortly'.
  30. [30]fortune.com — Reported July 27, 2026: A Chinese chip maker’s shares surged 466% in their first day of trading as AI boom worm turns.

Every figure above traces to a listed source, and no report publishes without at least three independent publishers. How we verify. Found an error? Tell us and we correct it in public.

$250B

- Reported January 18, 2026: Trump Administration Offers Tariff Relief In Exchange For $250B Ta… · What we know