Semiconductor export controls: the running tracker

A running tracking list of semiconductor export controls, trade restrictions, and licensing decisions.

Octans ResearchPublished 2026-07-30

Snapshot

This tracker details global semiconductor export controls, licensing approvals, and trade restrictions across jurisdictions. Built for analysts, each entry records a dated action with its primary source to map shifting supply chains.

Coverage: Independent Research
Prepared by: Octans Research
As of: 2026-07-30

What We Know

On April 4 2026, the US tightened semiconductor export controls to restrict technological advances. The measure targets advanced manufacturing capabilities.
On October 9 2025, China expanded rare earth export restrictions on processing technology. The rules target exports to overseas defense and semiconductor end users.
On July 21 2026, China considered stricter export controls covering artificial intelligence models and chips. The proposal targets key software and hardware assets.
On July 1 2026, the US lifted export controls on Anthropic Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models. The action relaxes restrictions on specific software architectures.
On May 31 2026, the US tightened artificial intelligence chip export controls amid Middle East escalation. The policy responds to regional security developments.
On November 4 2025, the European Union welcomed the suspension of China rare earth controls. The announcement followed international diplomatic discussions.
On October 9 2025, a congressional report noted China purchased $38B in chipmaking equipment. The purchases bypassed certain export controls.
On March 4 2026, an Indian trade delegation visited Eindhoven to seek Dutch semiconductor expertise. The meeting supports efforts to build domestic manufacturing capability.
On April 7 2026, proposed US export restrictions targeted deep ultraviolet lithography machines. The controls restrict equipment previously accessible to Chinese manufacturers.
On December 15 2025, reports highlighted the Huawei Kirin 9030 processor demonstrating domestic advancement. The development occurred despite active trade restrictions.
On August 8 2025, the US Commerce Department began issuing licenses for Nvidia H20 chip exports to China. The regulatory decision allows limited shipments under specified conditions.
On July 2 2026, analysis indicated ad hoc US model controls could inadvertently benefit foreign competitors. Proliferating restrictions highlight supply chain vulnerabilities.
On August 11 2025, Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay 15% of Chinese artificial intelligence chip revenues for export licenses. The agreement establishes revenue sharing for regulatory approval.
On March 5 2026, Nvidia reallocated TSMC production capacity to Vera Rubin amid China bound H200 setbacks. The production shift follows regulatory challenges on shipments.
On September 29, a Commerce Department rule targeted subsidiaries with at least 50% ownership by sanctioned entities. The regulation expands corporate ownership screening.
On October 18 2025, Arrow Electronics announced the removal of its units from the US blacklist. The decision restores standard trade permissions for those divisions.
On September 30, the Dutch government took control of Nexperia to retain technology in Europe. The intervention occurred as Washington expanded international trade restrictions.
On July 15 2026, official updates confirmed Nvidia commenced shipments of H200 chips to China. The deliveries followed regulatory clearance for roughly 10 buyers.
On April 28 2026, US authorities ordered equipment suppliers to halt shipments to Hua Hong. The restriction targets the second largest chipmaker in China.
On November 25 2025, reports indicated White House opposition to pending legislation increasing export curbs. Administration feedback urged lawmakers to reject the bill.
On December 9 2025, equity research analysts upgraded ratings on Nvidia. The adjustment reflected updated industry trade expectations.
On October 9 2025, Washington approved export licenses for Nvidia to ship 500,000 artificial intelligence chips annually to the UAE. The approval enables expanded Middle East distribution.
On November 3 2025, Microsoft secured export licenses for UAE chip shipments alongside a $15.2B investment. The capital commitment expands regional capabilities.
On September 17 2025, Chinese regulators ordered companies to halt purchases of Nvidia RTX Pro 6000D chips. The directive targets hardware tailored for the local market.
On February 24 2026, US Commerce Department officials confirmed 0 Nvidia H200 sales to China had occurred to date. The statement clarified delivery status under active controls.
On April 16 2026, US lawmakers modified pending legislation targeting Chinese semiconductor equipment access. The revised text maintains restrictions on deep ultraviolet lithography systems.
On January 18 2026, the US administration offered tariff relief tied to a $250B Taiwan semiconductor investment. The framework encourages domestic manufacturing expansion.
On September 5 2025, public statements signaled potential import tariffs between 200% to 300% on semiconductors. The proposal outlines prospective trade penalties.
On July 27 2026, shares of a Chinese semiconductor manufacturer surged 466% on debut. The market move coincided with shifting domestic supply dynamics.

Octans View

Regulatory actions show shifting trade boundaries as reporting across 14 publishers per the Octans Research market feed demonstrates how national security policies alter corporate chip distribution.

Bear Case · Room for Disagreement

The largest recorded transaction reaches $250B in proposed commitments. The tracker cannot capture undisclosed bilateral agreements or informal trade barriers that shape the semiconductor market. Across 29 actions per the Octans Research market feed, tracked values range down to $15.2B. These headline figures often represent proposed investments or maximum allocations rather than finalized capital deployments.

Sources

[1]economictimes.indiatimes.com — Reported April 4, 2026: US tightens chip export controls, curb China's tech rise.
[2]rte.ie — Reported October 9, 2025: China tightens rare earth export controls. China has tightened its rare earth export controls, expanding restrictions on processing technology and spelling out its intention to limit exports to overseas defence and semiconductor users.
[3]economictimes.indiatimes.com — Reported July 21, 2026: aI: China considers tighter export controls on AI models and chips.
[4]financefeeds.com — Reported July 1, 2026: U.S. Lifts Export Controls on Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI Models. The U.S.
[5]thestockmarketwatch.com — Reported May 31, 2026: US Tightens AI Chip Export Controls as Middle East Tensions Escalate Amid US-Iran Negotiations.
[6]yahoo.com — Reported November 4, 2025: European Union welcomes suspension of China's rare earth controls.
[7]finance.yahoo.com — Reported October 9, 2025: China Dodges US Export Controls, Buys $38 Billion In Chipmaking Equipment, Congress Report Says. China bought about $38 billion worth of sophisticated chimaking equipment from the U.S.
[8]finance.yahoo.com — Reported March 4, 2026: India seeks Dutch knowhow in semiconductor push. A trade delegation from India visited the Dutch semiconductor hub of Eindhoven on Wednesday to discuss ‌investment opportunities as New Delhi accelerates its efforts to build a domestic ‌chip industry.
[9]cnbc.com — Reported April 7, 2026: ASML shares fall after proposed U.S. export curbs target an already fragile China market. Proposed U.S. restrictions would target ASML's deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machine, which Chinese companies have so far been able to access.
[10]yahoo.com — Reported December 15, 2025: Huawei's Kirin 9030 processor shows China's chip progress despite US export curbs: report.
[11]yahoo.com — Reported August 8, 2025: US licenses Nvidia to export chips to China, official says. (Reuters) -The commerce department has started issuing licenses to Nvidia to export its H20 chips to China, a U.S.
[12]piie.com — Reported July 2, 2026: Fable of the Mythos saga: Ad hoc US AI model controls could help China. Proliferating export controls, import bans, and shortages of key components since COVID-19 have made supply chain resilience a top strategic concern for firms and governments.
[13]livemint.com — Reported August 11, 2025: Nvidia, AMD agree to pay 15% of Chinese AI chip revenues to US for export licenses. Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
[14]seekingalpha.com — Reported March 5, 2026: Nvidia shifts production focus to Vera Rubin amid China-bound H200 setback - report. Nvidia halts H200 AI chip production for China amid US-China export controls, reallocating TSMC capacity to Vera Rubin.
[15]wallstreetpit.com — export restrictions to China, as outlined in a Sept. 29 Commerce Department rule targeting subsidiaries with at least 50% ownership by sanctioned entities.
[16]livemint.com — Reported October 18, 2025: Chip Firm Arrow Says Its Units To Be Removed from US Blacklist. Arrow Electronics Inc.
[17]yahoo.com — The Dutch state took control of Nexperia on September 30 to ensure its technology and operations remain on European soil - just as Washington expanded its
[18]economictimes.indiatimes.com — Reported July 15, 2026: Nvidia H200 chips: US official says Nvidia has begun shipping powerful H200 AI chips to China. In May, ⁠Reuters reported ⁠the Commerce Department had cleared around 10 Chinese firms to buy the H200, but no deliveries had been made at the time.
[19]economictimes.indiatimes.com — Reported April 28, 2026: US stocks today: US orders multiple chip equipment companies to halt some shipments to China's No. 2 chipmaker Hua Hong. The U.S.
[20]finance.yahoo.com — Reported November 25, 2025: Good News for Nvidia Investors. Media reports suggest the White House is urging lawmakers to kill a pending bill in Congress that would increase export curbs on U.S.-made semiconductors.
[21]finance.yahoo.com — On December 9, 2025, The Fly reported that Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers upgraded his evaluation of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).
[22]finance.yahoo.com — Reported October 9, 2025: Nvidia Stock Could Get Another Boost After U.S. Approves UAE AI Chip Deal. Washington reportedly approved an export license for Nvidia to ship 500,000 AI chips a year.
[23]upi.com — Reported November 3, 2025: Microsoft to ship Nvidia chips to United Arab Emirates; invest $15.2 billion. Microsoft announced Monday that it has export licenses to ship Nvidia chips to the United Arab Emirates to help boost its artificial intelligence goals.
[24]cnbc.com — Reported September 17, 2025: Speaker Johnson says China is straining U.S. relations with Nvidia chip ban. The Cyberspace Administration of China ordered companies to halt purchases of Nvidia's RTX Pro 6000D, a chip that was made for the country.
[25]thestockmarketwatch.com — Reported February 24, 2026: Tech & AI Legal Update: Nvidia H200 China Sales Stalled; xAI Trade Secrets Suit Dismissed. A senior U.S. Commerce Department official confirmed on Tuesday that no Nvidia (NVDA) H200 chips have been sold to China to date.
[26]economictimes.indiatimes.com — Reported April 16, 2026: US lawmakers scale back bill targeting Chinese chipmaking. A US bill to limit China's access to advanced chipmaking equipment has been modified. The legislation still aims to restrict ASML's deep ultraviolet lithography machines.
[27]finance.yahoo.com — Reported January 18, 2026: Trump Administration Offers Tariff Relief In Exchange For $250 Billion Taiwan Chip Investment — TSMC Weighs Arizona Expansion, Says Howard Lutnick.
[28]bloombergquint.com — Reported September 5, 2025: Trump Hints At 200-300% Tariff On Semiconductor Imports: 'Fairly Substantial Chips Coming Shortly'.
[29]fortune.com — Reported July 27, 2026: A Chinese chip maker’s shares surged 466% in their first day of trading as AI boom worm turns.

Every figure above traces to a listed source, and no report publishes without at least three independent publishers. How we verify. Found an error? Tell us and we correct it in public.

$38B

- On October 9 2025, a congressional report noted China purchased $38B in chipmaking equipment · What we know