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US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September 2026; annual rate 3.7%

Consumer price index for September 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Octans ResearchPublished

Snapshot

The US consumer price index rose 0.6% in September 2026 from the month before, seasonally adjusted, and was up 3.7% from a year earlier, after 3.4% in August 2026.

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What We Know

Excluding food and energy, the core index rose 0.3% on the month and was up 2.6% from a year earlier, versus 2.4% in August 2026.

Annual inflation by month, oldest first: Aug 2025 2.9%; Sep 2025 3.0%; Nov 2025 2.7%; Dec 2025 2.7%; Jan 2026 2.4%; Feb 2026 2.4%; Mar 2026 3.3%; Apr 2026 3.8%; May 2026 4.2%; Jun 2026 3.5%; Jul 2026 3.4%; Aug 2026 3.4%; Sep 2026 3.7%.

Bar chart: US annual inflation, last 8 months. Percent change from a year earlier, as of September 2026. Feb 2026 2.4; Mar 2026 3.3; Apr 2026 3.8; May 2026 4.2; Jun 2026 3.5; Jul 2026 3.4; Aug 2026 3.4; Sep 2026 3.7. Latest quarter 3.7%, Rose from 3.4%.
Source: FRED.

Octans View

Annual inflation rose from 3.4% in August 2026 to 3.7% in September 2026. The monthly change uses the seasonally adjusted index; the annual change uses the unadjusted index, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics does for its headline figures.

Bear Case · Room for Disagreement

Limits. These are the figures as the Bureau of Labor Statistics published them and FRED carries them today; later revisions can change them. The brief makes no forecast and does not compare the release with economists' expectations.

Method and source. Octans Research reads the series from FRED on release day. Published levels and rates are used as they are; changes are computed from the published levels, and "highest since" compares the latest reading with the full history of the series. The text is generated by a fixed template; no model wrote it.

Sources

  1. [1]Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Consumer price index, all items, seasonally adjusted (series CPIAUCSL)
  2. [2]Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Consumer price index, all items, not seasonally adjusted (series CPIAUCNS)
  3. [3]Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Consumer price index less food and energy, seasonally adjusted (series CPILFESL)
  4. [4]Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Consumer price index less food and energy, not seasonally adjusted (series CPILFENS)

These are the sources this piece was drafted from. How we verify. Found an error? Tell us and we correct it in public.

0.3%

Excluding food and energy, the core index rose 0.3% on the month and was up 2.6% from a year ea… · What we know

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