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A reference page, updated as the facts change rather than written once.

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Where the effective federal funds rate stands versus its history

The effective federal funds rate was 3.88% on Oct 16, 2026, in the middle third of its 12 month range. Updated when the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a new reading.

Octans ResearchPublished Updated

Snapshot

The effective federal funds rate was 3.88% on Oct 16, 2026, in the middle third of its 12 month range. The highest reading in the data is 22.36% on Jul 22, 1981 and the lowest is 0.04% on Apr 29, 2020; the data starts on Jan 1, 1970.

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Independent Research
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Octans Research
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AI drafted from cited sources, automated checks
Sector
macro
As of

What We Know

  • Latest reading: 3.88% on Oct 16, 2026.
  • Previous reading: 3.88% on Oct 15, 2026, so the latest is unchanged.
  • One week earlier: 3.88% on Oct 9, 2026; unchanged since.
  • One year earlier: 4.11% on Oct 16, 2025; down 23 basis points since.
  • 12 month high: 4.12% on Oct 29, 2025. 12 month low: 3.62% on Jul 13, 2026.
  • 5 year high: 5.33% on Sep 18, 2024. 5 year low: 0.07% on Jan 2, 2022.
  • Highest since: the latest reading is the highest since Oct 15, 2026, the last time the series was at or above this level.
  • Lowest since: the latest reading is the lowest since Oct 15, 2026, the last time the series was at or below this level.
  • Highest in data back to Jan 1, 1970: 22.36% on Jul 22, 1981. Lowest: 0.04% on Apr 29, 2020.

Octans View

At 3.88%, the effective federal funds rate sits 52% of the way from its 12 month low to its 12 month high. Over the past year it is down 23 basis points.

Bear Case · Room for Disagreement

Limits. This page shows daily readings, not intraday levels; a market can trade above or below them during a session. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York data reach FRED with a lag of one business day, so the latest reading can trail the market. Records refer only to the history this source carries; older data from other sources may show higher or lower levels. Nothing here is a forecast.

Method and source. Octans Research computes every figure on this page from the full published history of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) series DFF. "Highest since" is the last earlier date when the series was at or above the latest reading. The page is regenerated by a fixed template when a new reading is published; no model wrote it.

Chart

Effective federal funds rate, in the middle third of its 12 month range Effective federal funds rate, in the middle third of its 12 month range: series rising from 0.08% to 3.9% (+3.8%) from 2021-10-24 to 2026-10-16. Scale 0% to 6%. 0%2%4%6% 2021-10-242026-10-16 EFFECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE, IN THE MIDDLE THIRD OF ITS 12 MONTH RANGE +3.8% 3.88%
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · As of 2026-10-16Indicative, not investment advice.

Sources

  1. [1]Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Effective federal funds rate, full daily history (series DFF)

These are the sources this piece was drafted from. How we verify. Found an error? Tell us and we correct it in public.

3.88%

• Latest reading: 3.88% on Oct 16, 2026 · What we know

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