US economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter of 2026
Gross domestic product, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Snapshot
US real gross domestic product grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, in the latest estimate, after growth of 2.2% in the second quarter of 2026.
- Independent Research
What We Know
Real GDP growth at an annual rate by quarter, oldest first: Q4 2024 2.4%; Q1 2025 0.1%; Q2 2025 4.0%; Q3 2025 3.9%; Q4 2025 0.2%; Q1 2026 2.5%; Q2 2026 2.2%; Q3 2026 3.4%.
Octans View
The annual rate is the quarter's change compounded over a year; the Bureau of Economic Analysis revises each quarter twice in the following months.
Bear Case · Room for Disagreement
Limits. These are the figures as the Bureau of Economic Analysis published them and FRED carries them today; later revisions can change them. The brief makes no forecast and does not compare the release with economists' expectations.
Method and source. Octans Research reads the series from FRED on release day. Published levels and rates are used as they are; changes are computed from the published levels, and "highest since" compares the latest reading with the full history of the series. The text is generated by a fixed template; no model wrote it.
Sources
- [1]Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Real gross domestic product, percent change at an annual rate (series A191RL1Q225SBEA)
These are the sources this piece was drafted from. How we verify. Found an error? Tell us and we correct it in public.
2.4%
4 reports
US initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 in the week ended Oct 24, 2026
Weekly unemployment insurance claims, published by the Department of Labor.
Treasury Yields Shift After September 20 Year Auction Peak
Auction high yield rose 21.6 basis points in September before constant maturity yields declined in late October
US initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 in the week ended Oct 17, 2026
Weekly unemployment insurance claims, published by the Department of Labor.
Ten Year Treasury Auction Clears at Five Point Three Percent Before Constant Maturity Yield Eases
US Treasury auction data show high yield rose 46.6 basis points in October before constant maturity rates softened across subsequent trading sessions